Gas prices increased in most Canadian cities this week due to cold weather affecting production from North American refineries.
Regular gasoline prices increased by eleven cents and nine cents per liter, respectively, between January 18 and January 25 in Winnipeg and Victoria, two of the cities that saw substantial hikes. According to statistics compiled by data firm Calibrate, which covers more than 70 locations, the national average price went up two cents per liter to $1.487.
While Alberta and Quebec experienced slight decreases in prices, the overall trend across the country was an increase. Most areas in the Greater Toronto Area witnessed price hikes of nearly three cents per liter. AAA spokesman Andrew Gross warned that cooler temperatures could impact refinery production, potentially leading to higher regional pump prices.
The volatile nature of oil prices, low gas demand, and rising inventories are currently limiting significant price gains, Gross noted. However, he added that if the rise in crude oil prices continues, the situation may change.
Calibrate analysts, in their latest quarterly price report, predict that Canadian gas prices will remain stable through the winter, with a peak expected in May. They anticipate stability during the winter months due to the little expected difference in crude oil prices. In the spring, increased demand is predicted to lead to higher gasoline refining margins and higher wholesale gasoline prices, increasing the likelihood of a switch to costlier summer-blend fuel.
The forecast, however, comes with an exception. While the crude oil market is expected to remain mostly balanced in 2024 with little price volatility, rising tensions in the Middle East could pose a risk, potentially disrupting crude oil supplies and leading to sudden spikes in prices.
Below are some gas prices in various Canadian cities as of January 25 (all figures in CAD cents per liter):
- Victoria: $1.669 (+11 cents)
- Winnipeg: $1.230 (+9 cents)
- Toronto: $1.464 (+2.9 cents)
- Calgary: $1.262 (-3 cents)
- Montreal: $1.609 (+3.3 cents)
- Halifax: $1.553 (+3.2 cents)
- St. John's: $1.646 (+3.2 cents)
- Charlottetown: $1.582 (+4.8 cents)